The nationally televised debate between Florida Gov. Charlie Crist and former state House Speaker Marco Rubio on Sunday made clear that the Republican Senate primary is going to be a knockdown, drag-out brawl between now and, gulp, August 24.
The almost-certain political bloodbath on the Republican side stands in stark contrast to the quiet race for the Democratic nomination -- where Rep. Kendrick Meek seems to be on cruise control to become the party's nominee.
And yet, despite the body blows being exchanged on the Republican side, there is almost no chatter among smart Democratic operatives about Meek's chances of winning the race in November.
Why?
As often is the case in politics, it's all about the benjamins.
In conversations with Democratic strategists closely following the race, the biggest hurdle between Meek and inside-the-Beltway credibility is fundraising.
Meek -- with a major assist from former President Bill Clinton -- has been solid if not spectacular in the chase for campaign cash, having raised $4.6 million and ending 2009 with $3.3 million on hand.
The issue is that Meek has a FAR lower profile than either Crist, who is universally known in the state, or Rubio who will be universally known in the state (if he isn't already) by the end of the primary. By contrast, nearly six in ten Floridians didn't know enough about Meek to offer an opinion in a recent Research 2000 poll conducted for the liberal Daily Kos blog.
That means that Meek has to raise enough money to get up on the air -- no cheap proposition in a state the size of Florida -- early and begin to tell his story to voters before his Republican opponent has a chance to tell it for him.
(Meek's story is potentially compelling -- if he has the money to tell it. Prior to winning a Miami-area seat his mother held, Meek served as a state highway patrolman.)
What fundraising number does Meek need to get to? It's hard to know given that Republicans haven't picked their nominee yet but it's not much of a leap to see either Crist or Rubio raising and spending $20+ million as the nominee. Crist is the best non-incumbent fundraiser in the country and if Rubio wins he will be the darling of conservatives nationwide and, as a result, will be able to raise whatever he needs.
Assuming then that Meek will be outspent in the general election, the question is whether he can match the fundraising of Democrats who have recently run for Senate in Florida. In 2004, Betty Castor raised and spent almost $11.5 million for a race she lost to Mel Martinez; two years later, Sen. Bill Nelson (D) raised and spent $16 million in his crushing defeat of then Rep. Katherine Harris (R).
For Meek to be successful, he needs to get somewhere between those two numbers. It's unlikely that without the power of incumbency or the specter of "Senator Katherine Harris" that Meek can match Nelson's total. But, he must do better than Castor, who had been elected to statewide office prior to running, on the fundraising front to have a chance at winning.
The x-factor in the money conversation is whether the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee will open its checkbook for Florida if polling shows that Meek can win. The DSCC's first priority will be in trying to defend their incumbents (Colorado, Nevada, Arkansas etc) and then the open seats they currently control (Indiana and Connecticut among others). It's tough to see that when all of those races are taken into consideration that there will be any significant chunk of money left for Meek.
If Meek can raise the money -- and that's a big if -- the history of Senate races in the Sunshine State should be encouraging for him -- and Democrats nationally. Since 1980, Democrats have won six Senate races in the state including three of the last four (Bob Graham in 1998, Nelson in 2000 and 2006).
And, polling suggests that Meek is within shouting distance -- particularly if, as expected, Rubio is the Republican nominee this fall.
The Research 2000 poll showed Rubio at 41 percent to 40 percent for Meek. A new Mason-Dixon Polling & Research poll showed a wider lead for the Republican with Rubio at 44 percent to Meek's 29 percent.
Overhanging the entire race is the possibility that Crist, if he sees no path to victory in the primary, would run as an independent in the general election. While Crist ruled out that possibility during his debate with Rubio on Sunday, we have been around politics long enough -- and talked to enough Florida operatives -- to be somewhat skeptical that the door has been totally shut.
The next three months will be critical to Meek's chances of pulling off an upset. How much can Meek bank between now and June? How nasty does the fight between Crist and Rubio get? And, least predictable of all, how does what looks to be a very tough political environment for Democrats in Florida change -- if at all?
Posted By: Kendrick Meek
Tuesday, March 30th 2010 at 1:49PM
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